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Message subject : Market logic....go figure it out

This message was posted by Avi on July 28, 2000 :

Spend enough time studying the market, and you realize the market has a mind of its own - when your stock tanks on good news, but goes up on bad news- when analysts recommend your stock as a buy, and the stock takes an immediate dive- when CEOs go public and say all is great, and a month later all is terrible, you realize things are not what they seem. It took me 12 years to deprogram my mind from the constant barrage of Wall Street's misguided expertise that on the surface seemed logical, but worked against me in real trading. If you want to be successful, you too have to deprogram.

ANALYSTS RECOMMENDATIONS. Can someone please explain to me the reason why analysts issue buy recommendations on stocks when they're at an all time high, and sell recommendations on stocks at all time low? Brokers, investment advisors, mutual funds, etc, are all part of the money machine. Your broker has little knowledge and just passes along the buy and sell orders he gets from the top. Your investment advisor which you hired to guide and protect you, gets a commission from the mutual fund he puts you into. Need I say more?


REALITY CHECK. Stocks rarely crash for no reason, and no message board uproar will change the fact that you may be missing some key vital information soon to be known. The numbers never lie, and if your stock crashed, it probably happened for a very good reason. It's a strong bet, that following a false rebound the stock will fall even further, and neither the shorts, nor the longs win when jumping into a high volatility situation. The best play is to do nothing and wait for the volatility to die down.


FINANCIAL DOCUMENTS. Be very skeptical. After all companies only show us what they want us to see. When do we get the real data? After the CEO and his buddies all sold their shares.

STOP LOSS ORDERS. The market is volatile, but investors should not use stop loss orders. You either like the stock because it's a great value and willing to ride the volatility, or just donít buy it. The original idea was to protect investors from losing money to volatile investments. Sounds reasonable, but in reality stop losses have a major impact on how investors operate. Instead of evaluating investments based on value, the concept now is, "Let's just buy it, and if it falls I will just lose 10% as my stop loss gets hit." The problem with this kind of thinking is that instead of accumulating winners, you are creating a system biased toward accumulating losses.


SCALING IN. The number one mistake among investors is not picking the wrong stock, it's not scaling in properly. I strongly believe in scaling into a position, buying more as the stock falls. Most investors make the tragic mistake of putting too much money and energy into their first buy, emotionally committing themselves to being right. When things go wrong and often they do, they are left paralyzed.


SUPPORT. as most investors view it is a fallacy. Support is only a temporary stop that can be mathematically calculated. To think that there is such a thing as long term support is as naive as the belief that a company will always deliver on its projected earnings. REMEMBER: True bottom in most cases is a non news event, and is typically mathematical in nature. By the time the average investor realizes he missed the bottom it's too late. What happened, what was the news? There was none, see you next time.

THE URGE TO TRADE. is strong for most people; they want constant action. The problem? Great picks don't come up every day. Idle periods are part of the business. You may be tempted to take on a lesser trade, only to regret it later. As a rule, a lesser trade will go against you at the worst possible time. Finally, when a great pick does come along, you want to be cash rich, and emotionally clean. The last thing you need is preoccupation with a deteriorating position.

THE CROWD. Don't join the crowd, as the crowd is rarely right. A Message Board is an incubator of emotional investors focusing on the wrong events and the wrong consequences. Spend one week listening to 100 would be experts, and before you know it, you will have lost your own conviction. Very little valuable information can ever be gotten in a message board, but you can certainly measure sentiments.

TAKEOVER: Following weeks of bad news and a depressed stock price, rumors of an imminent takeover is the next logical event. Although a takeover is always a possibility, in the majority of the cases it's just rumors.

LOGIC. If you're losing $$$ on your stock, it simply means you bought it at the wrong time... "the wrong time" usually being when everybody else wants it. If you sell it now at the low, 12 months from now when it's back at the 52 week high you'll not only have bought it at the wrong time, but did worse by selling it at the worst time as well. Keep in mind, If you buy a $1.00 Christmas card for $.25 on December 26th, it's not worthless. It's safe to say that 11 months from now it will be worth at least $1.00, or 4 times what you paid for it. Is a $300.00 winter coat bought in May for $150 a bad investment, or will it be just as warm, soft, and valuable 6 months later?





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